National unemployment metrics for April; 2019

Curtailed Claims

First time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 192,000 in the week ending 4/13, their lowest level since 9/69, while the less volatile four-week moving average fell to 201,250, the lowest level since 11/69. When unemployment claims hit their cyclical lows in 1/89, 4/00 and 1/06, a recession occurred in 18 months, 11 months and 23 months respectively. Just one more reason why a recession this year is very unlikely.

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Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
GraphsandLaughs, LLC
elliot@graphsandlaughs.net
Cell: 202.306.2731
http://www.econ70.com

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About TARR Report

S.M.A. Publications was formed in 1997 with a mission of providing real estate information for practitioners within the Research Triangle Park area of North Carolina. The company produces the T.A.R.R. Reports which are published monthly, quarterly and annually, covering all aspects of the residential real estate market. The publisher, Stacey P. Anfindsen, has over 23 years of residential experience in the Triangle market. He is an active real estate appraiser, educator and consultant.
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