TMLS market update for April; 2019

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National residential new home sales for April; 2019

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

National new home building permits and starts for April; 2019

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

National new home metrics for May; 2019

Lousy Lumber

In 5/18, lumber futures hit $640/1,000 board feet. By 10/18, they were half and have largely remained there; mills are closing. New home construction has reduced GDP for five straight quarters and is 3.76% of GDP. At the peak of the boom, it was 6.67%. Moreover, YTD starts are down 9.7%, permits are down 5.4%, existing sales have fallen Y-o-Y for 13 straight months, and renovation activity growth is slowing.

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Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
GraphsandLaughs, LLC
elliot@graphsandlaughs.net
Cell: 202.306.2731
http://www.econ70.com

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Triangle MLS market update for March, 2019

National residential new home sales for March, 2019

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

National unemployment metrics for April; 2019

Curtailed Claims

First time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 192,000 in the week ending 4/13, their lowest level since 9/69, while the less volatile four-week moving average fell to 201,250, the lowest level since 11/69. When unemployment claims hit their cyclical lows in 1/89, 4/00 and 1/06, a recession occurred in 18 months, 11 months and 23 months respectively. Just one more reason why a recession this year is very unlikely.

SHARE THIS:
Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
GraphsandLaughs, LLC
elliot@graphsandlaughs.net
Cell: 202.306.2731
http://www.econ70.com

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