New York, May 18, 2023…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. declined 0.6 percent in April 2023 to 107.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 1.2 percent in March. The LEI is down 4.4 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (April–October 2022).
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in April 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in March. The CEI is now up 0.7 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—down from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. While recent trends in manufacturing activity and industrial production have been weak, employment and income growth remain positive.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. decreased by 0.1 percent in April 2023 to 118.3 (2016 = 100), after remaining unchanged in March. The LAG is up 0.9 percent over the six-month period from October 2022 and April 2023, down significantly from its growth rate of 4.0 percent over the previous six months.