NEW YORK, May 10, 2021…The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) significantly increased in April, after an increase in March. The index now stands at 105.44, up from 102.65 (an upward revision) in March. The index is currently up 45.7 percent from a year ago.
“Despite the disappointing April jobs report, the Employment Trends Index significantly increased in April, suggesting strong employment growth in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “Most of the Index’s components are rapidly improving. However, the number of employees in the temporary help industry, usually a strong leading indicator of employment, declined in April. Rather than signaling a weak outlook for job growth, it may reflect some substitution in employment as employers hire more regular employees and end contracts with temporary workers. In the coming months we expect job creation to continue, but at a possibly slower pace than expected in light of the latest job numbers. A slew of indicators measuring recruiting difficulties, quit rates, and wage growth suggest the US economy is experiencing an historical, though probably temporary, labor shortage. Among the shortage’s many effects, it may put a damper on job growth.”
April’s increase was driven by positive contributions from six of eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, the components were: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance; Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get”; Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers; Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales; Industrial Production; and Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now.
The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
New York, April 27, 2021…The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose sharply again in April, following a substantial gain in March. The Index now stands at 121.7 (1985=100), up from 109.0 in March. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—soared from 110.1 to 139.6. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose moderately, from 108.3 last month to 109.8 in April.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was April 16.
“Consumer confidence has rebounded sharply over the last two months and is now at its highest level since February 2020,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved significantly in April, suggesting the economic recovery strengthened further in early Q2. Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook held steady this month. Consumers were more upbeat about their income prospects, perhaps due to the improving job market and the recent round of stimulus checks. Short-term inflation expectations held steady in April, but remain elevated. Vacation intentions posted a healthy increase, likely boosted by the accelerating vaccine rollout and further loosening of pandemic restrictions.”
Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved significantly in April. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” increased from 18.3 percent to 23.3 percent, while the proportion claiming business conditions are “bad” fell from 30.1 percent to 24.8 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market also improved. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 26.5 percent to 37.9 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined from 18.5 percent to 13.2 percent.
Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook improved moderately. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months rose marginally, from 40.3 percent to 40.5 percent, while the proportion expecting business conditions to worsen stood relatively unchanged at 11.9 percent. Consumers’ outlook regarding the job market was slightly less upbeat. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead fell from 35.9 percent to 34.5 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose from 14.4 percent to 15.5 percent. Regarding short-term income prospects, 17.9 percent of consumers expect their incomes to increase in the next six months, up from 15.4 percent in March. Those expecting their incomes to decrease fell to 10.9 percent, down from 12.6 percent.
April 23, 2021 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential sales statistics for March 2021:
NEW RESIDENTIALSALES MARCH 2021
New Houses Sold : 1,021,000 New Houses For Sale : 307,000 Median Sales Price: $330,800
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, April 23, 2021
New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in March 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,021,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 20.7 percent (±23.7 percent)* above the revised February rate of 846,000 and is 66.8 percent (±36.7 percent) above the March 2020 estimate of 612,000. Sales Price. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2021 was $330,800. The average sales price was $397,800.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 307,000. This represents a supply of 3.6 months at the current sales rate.
Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,766,000. This is 2.7 percent (±1.7 percent) above the revised February rate of 1,720,000 and is 30.2 percent (±1.8 percent) above the March 2020 rate of 1,356,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 1,199,000; this is 4.6 percent (±1.9 percent) above the revised February figure of 1,146,000.
Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 508,000 in March.
Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,739,000. This is 19.4 percent (±13.7 percent) above the revised February estimate of 1,457,000 and is 37.0 percent (±15.2 percent) above the March 2020 rate of 1,269,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,238,000; this is 15.3 percent (±17.4 percent)* above the revised February figure of 1,074,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 477,000.
Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,580,000. This is 16.6 percent (±14.0 percent) above the revised February estimate of 1,355,000 and is 23.4 percent (±13.7 percent) above the March 2020 rate of 1,280,000. Single-family housing completions in March were at a rate of 1,099,000; this is 5.3 percent (±11.7 percent)* above the revised February rate of 1,044,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 476,000.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, April 16, 2021 Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch Public Information Office 301-763-5160 301-763-3030 eid.rcb.customer.service@census.gov pio@census.gov The April report is scheduled for release on May 18, 2021.
The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey Finds Optimism Rising amid Accelerating Vaccinations and Sustained Fiscal Stimulus
New York, April 14, 2021…Global consumer confidence soared to record heights in the first quarter of 2021, according to The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Survey, as vaccination campaigns broadened, travel restrictions loosened, and governments and central banks continued to provide economic stimulus.
The survey found that overall global consumer confidence shot up from 98 in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 108 in the first quarter of 2021. That figure exceeded the reading of 106 registered in pre-pandemic 2020 Q1 (a figure above 100 is considered positive) and is the highest recorded since the survey began in 2005. Confidence rose in 49 of 65 markets surveyed, as economic activity resumed, COVID-19 cases peaked in many economies, and vaccine development and distribution expanded. The vaccines contributed to that revival, so individual economies’ level of access to them will greatly affect the timing of their recoveries and boosts in consumer confidence. (For 2020 Q4 indexes, results exclude China due to data collection constraints.)
“The lightening of consumer moods globally bodes well for spending throughout the remainder of the year as economies continue to emerge from the 2020 pandemic-induced economic downturn and work toward arresting the spread of the virus,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. “Nonetheless, the global economic recovery – and, consequently, consumer sentiment – is likely to continue to vary notably from region to region. Economies with greater access to vaccines are likely to achieve herd immunity, and thus will return to a state of normalcy sooner.”
Additional takeaways include:
The record-setting global economic confidence was driven by increases in most regions but not all of them.
Confidence still varied across regions: Latin America (up 13 points, from 86 to 99) and Europe (up 11 points, from 76 to 87) enjoyed the biggest gains in consumer confidence. But both regions started from low bases, and Europe remains the least confident region. North America, by contrast, slipped six points, from 116 to 110, while Africa and the Middle East dropped from 101 to 97.
Growing confidence in personal finances, especially, propelled the stronger global sentiment: Consumers were significantly more optimistic about their finances in Q1 2021, with the gap between positive and negative responses standing at +29 percentage points, up substantially from +15 percentage points in Q4 2020. Of the three key drivers of global confidence, personal finances made the largest impact, although the other two drivers also trended upward: Sentiment about job prospects were up overall around the globe and spending intentions flipped from negative (-7 ppts) in Q4 2020 to positive (+6 ppts) in Q1 2021.
Consumers are gearing up for a return to normalcy: Consumers spent more on entertainment outside of the home, clothing, and vacations. Taken together, these trends indicate that consumers are increasingly looking forward to returning to normal activities at some point this year. Given that consumption levels significantly contribute to growth in many mature economies, such activity in anticipation of greater freedom later on supports The Conference Board’s upwardly revised projection of 5 percent real GDP growth globally this year.
However, around the world, consumers also ramped up savings: 57 percent of global consumers indicated that they are putting money into savings, an increase of 9 ppts from the previous quarter. Their efforts to economize primarily reflected savings on hospitality and entertainment services. Consumers planned to eliminate annual vacations, delay upgrading technology, and cut meals away from home. They also switched to cheaper grocery brands and drove their cars less. And, they indicated that they plan to continue saving on clothing, out-of-home-entertainment, and utilties even after economic conditions improve.
The scars of the recession lingered, with health and economic concerns looming large.
A strong majority of consumers (64 percent) said that their market was still in recession during the first quarter of 2021. While that figure dropped sharply from the end of 2020 (down 17 percentage points, from 81 percent) recession concerns remained elevated.
Globally, only 41 percent of consumers expected that their economy would be out of recession in 12 months, virtually unchanged from the previous quarter.
Consumers’ worries about their own health (22 percent) and economic performance (20 percent) dominated their top concerns. This trend will likely hold through mid-2021 given the continued crisis, and the time it will take to arrest the coronavirus and establish herd immunity.
“With uncertainty around jobs and health prompting consumers to continue economizing, it seems clear that GDP returning to pre-pandemic levels will not in itself mark a return to the old normal,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. “Healing in labor markets may take longer, with greater potential for scarring among industries that are vulnerable to automation and digital transformation.”
While consumer sentiment was up overall around the globe, regional disparities persisted.
Europe: While nearly all European countries improved in the first quarter of 2021, the region remained the most pessimistic of all surveyed.
Job prospects remained the main drag on confidence in the region, despite efforts in many individual economies to contain the negative impact of the pandemic on the labor market.
Spending intentions improved in all large European economies, except in Germany. However, restrictions on activity, which were announced in March and April amid an increase in COVID-19 cases, limited consumers’ willingness to spend.
Asia-Pacific (AP): Consumer confidence continued to improve in 10 of 14 AP markets, not including China, as effective containment measures, fiscal stimulus packages in both advanced and emerging economies in the region, and a comparative advantage in exports of goods and technology helped boost regional sentiment.
With a score of 118, AP was the region with the highest consumer confidence.
The Q4 2020 survey did not include China, but the Q1 2021 reading of sentiment there (121) marked a dramatic improvement from the Q2 2020 (97), which was the last time that country was included in the survey.
Latin America: With the region experiencing the largest increase in positive consumer sentiment, its confidence gauge flipped from negative to nearly positive territory, with every economy covered by the survey reporting sizable gains in confidence.
Rising optimism about personal finances translated into a greater share of consumers spending their spare cash, but plans to economize on utilties and clothing remained.
Although COVID-19 cases continued to rise in Brazil and Chile, infections continued to trend downward for many economies. General concerns about the economy ebbed as most governments in the region passed generous fiscal relief packages.
Africa & The Middle East (A&ME): Consumer confidence in the region dipped slightly in the first quarter of 2021 from the final quarter of 2020, making it one of two regions, along with North America, to see a retreat in overall outlook.
There was a significant range of sentiment among countries in the region, with scores ranging from Morocco on one end (70) to Saudi Arabia (125) at the other. The split may relate to exposure to non-oil sources of growth, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE—relatively less dependent upon oil revenues—reporting improved confidence in Q1 2021.
The steep decline in consumption due to the pandemic appeared to be short-lived in the Gulf with the vaccination campaigns on the way, although slow, and the resulting economic rebound in 2021.
North America: Consumer confidence fell in the first quarter of 2021, driven by a dip in confidence in the US – likely due to the slow initial rollout of the vaccines and the heightened political tensions from the protracted election season – while confidence rose in Canada. The decline is expected to be temporary.
In the US, concerns about the economy loomed large, but ebbed slightly. Concerns about health ticked up slightly. Notably, concerns about political stability appeared to lessen following a spike in the last quarter of 2020.
In Canada, concerns about health and job prospects both ticked up, but worries about the economy fell.
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New York, March 30, 2021…The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® surged in March to its highest reading in a year, after a modest increase in February. The Index now stands at 109.7 (1985=100), up from 90.4 in February. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—climbed from 89.6 to 110.0. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—also improved, from 90.9 last month to 109.6 in March.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was March 19.
Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved significantly in March. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” increased from 16.1 percent to 18.5 percent, while the proportion claiming business conditions are “bad” fell from 39.7 percent to 30.5 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market also improved. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 21.6 percent to 26.3 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined from 22.4 percent to 18.5 percent.
Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook improved considerably. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months rose from 30.7 percent to 40.8 percent, while the proportion expecting business conditions will worsen declined from 17.7 percent to 11.0 percent. Consumers’ outlook regarding the job market was also more favorable. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 27.4 percent to 36.1 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined from 21.3 percent to 13.4 percent. Regarding short-term income prospects, 15.5 percent of consumers expect their incomes to increase in the next six months, up modestly from 14.8 percent in February. However, 13.3 percent expect their incomes to decrease, up slightly from 12.9 percent last month.
MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES, FEBRUARY 2021 Release Number: CB21-46 March 23, 2021 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential sales statistics for February 2021: NEW RESIDENTIALSALES FEBRUARY 2021
New Houses Sold : 775,000 New Houses For Sale : 312,000 Median Sales Price: $349,400
New Home Sales Sales of new single-family houses in February 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 775,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 18.2 percent (±13.9 percent) below the revised January rate of 948,000, but is 8.2 percent (±21.7 percent)* above the February 2020 estimate of 716,000.
Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2021 was $349,400. The average sales price was $416,000.
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 312,000. This represents a supply of 4.8 months at the current sales rate.
MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, FEBRUARY 2021 Release Number: CB21-41 March 17, 2021 – The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for February 2021: NEW RESIDENTIALCONSTRUCTION FEBRUARY 2021 Building Permits: 1,682,000 Housing Starts: 1,421,000 Housing Completions: 1,362,000 Next Release: April 16, 2021 Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, March 17, 2021 Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,682,000. This is 10.8 percent (±1.0 percent) below the revised January rate of 1,886,000, but is 17.0 percent (±1.4 percent) above the February 2020 rate of 1,438,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,143,000; this is 10.0 percent (±0.8 percent) below the revised January figure of 1,270,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 495,000 in February. Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,421,000. This is 10.3 percent (±10.5 percent)* below the revised January estimate of 1,584,000 and is 9.3 percent (±9.4 percent)* below the February 2020 rate of 1,567,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,040,000; this is 8.5 percent (±9.3 percent)* below the revised January figure of 1,136,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 372,000. Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,362,000. This is 2.9 percent (±10.0 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,324,000 and is 5.0 percent (±11.9 percent)* above the February 2020 rate of 1,297,000. Single-family housing completions in February were at a rate of 1,042,000; this is 2.8 percent (±10.5 percent)* above the revised January rate of 1,014,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 314,000. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, March 17, 2021 Data Inquiries Media Inquiries Economic Indicators Division, Residential Construction Branch Public Information Office 301-763-5160 301-763-3030 eid.rcb.customer.service@census.gov pio@census.gov The March report is scheduled for release on April 16, 2021.
New Home Sales Sales of new single-family houses in January 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 923,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.3 percent (±18.1 percent)* above the revised December rate of 885,000 and is 19.3 percent (±19.5 percent)* above the January 2020 estimate of 774,000. Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2021 was $346,400. The average sales price was $408,800. For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 307,000. This represents a supply of 4.0 months at the current sales rate.
New York, February 23, 2021…The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved again in February, after increasing in January. The Index now stands at 91.3 (1985=100), up from 88.9 in January. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—climbed from 85.5 to 92.0. However, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell marginally, from 91.2 last month to 90.8 in February.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was February 11. The survey results did not fully capture the events surrounding the Texas power crisis nor the loosening of dining restrictions in NYC.
“After three months of consecutive declines in the Present Situation Index, consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in February,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “This course reversal suggests economic growth has not slowed further. While the Expectations Index fell marginally in February, consumers remain cautiously optimistic, on the whole, about the outlook for the coming months. Notably, vacation intentions—particularly, plans to travel outside the U.S. and via air—saw an uptick this month, and are poised to improve further as vaccination efforts expand.”
Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in February. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” increased from 15.8 percent to 16.5 percent, while the proportion claiming business conditions are “bad” fell from 42.4 percent to 39.9 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market also improved. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 20.0 percent to 21.9 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined from 22.5 percent to 21.2 percent.
Consumers, however, were marginally less optimistic about the short-term outlook in February. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months fell from 34.1 percent to 31.0 percent; however, the proportion expecting business conditions will worsen also declined, from 19.0 percent to 17.7 percent. Likewise, consumers’ outlook regarding the job market was somewhat mixed. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 30.4 percent to 26.1 percent; however, those anticipating fewer jobs also declined, from 22.1 percent to 20.6 percent. Regarding short-term income prospects, 15.2 percent of consumers expect their incomes to increase in the next six months, down slightly from 15.8 percent in January. Conversely, 13.2 percent expect their incomes to decrease, down from 15.5 percent last month.
