WTVD report on RTP real estate

https://abc11.com/raleigh-real-estate-housing-market-homebuyers/11339827/

Conference Board Employment Trends Index; November, 2021

NEW YORK, December 6, 2021…The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased slightly in November. The index now stands at 114.49, up from 113.03 in October (an upward revision).

“The Employment Trends Index continues to advance steadily, suggesting a decent outlook for job growth over the next several months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “In that context, November’s disappointing payrolls growth may be an outlier rather than a new trend. Of course, this is contingent on the emerging Omicron variant—a new wildcard that threatens to extend COVID-19’s impacts on job growth beyond Delta.”

“On its current trajectory, much of the job growth ahead should come from sectors still in the process of reopening, including restaurants, hotels, entertainment, personal services, and passenger transportation. These industries are relatively labor intensive, so their further recoveries will be key for sustaining strong job growth. At the same time, labor supply will struggle to meet the demand for workers, as the US working-age population stagnates and Baby Boomers drop out of the workforce. We currently project the unemployment rate—already down to 4.2 percent—to approach 3.0 percent by the end of 2022, which would mark a 70-year low. Indeed, even if pandemic disruptions to labor supply fully subside in the year ahead, a tight labor market is likely here for the foreseeable future. Employers should expect recruiting difficulties and quit rates to remain high, fueling the upward pressure on wages.”

November’s increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from six of eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance; Industrial Production; Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers; Job Openings; Number of Temporary Employees; and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. The two components that made negative contributions in November were Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now and Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get”.

The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

ABC11 on RTP house prices

https://abc11.com/wake-county-real-estate-raleigh-housing-durham/11290120/

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; October, 2021

New York, November 30, 2021…The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in November, following an increase in October. The Index now stands at 109.5 (1985=100), down from 111.6 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 142.5 from 145.5 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 87.6 from 89.0.

“Consumer confidence moderated in November, following a gain in October,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Expectations about short-term growth prospects ticked up, but job and income prospects ticked down. Concerns about rising prices—and, to a lesser degree, the Delta variant—were the primary drivers of the slight decline in confidence. Meanwhile, the proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances over the next six months decreased. The Conference Board expects this to be a good holiday season for retailers and confidence levels suggest the economic expansion will continue into early 2022. However, both confidence and spending will likely face headwinds from rising prices and a potential resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming months.”

National new home sales metrics; October, 2021

‐ The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential sales statistics for October 2021:

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES OCTOBER 2021

New Houses Sold : 745,000

New Houses For Sale : 389,000

Median Sales Price: $407,700

New Home Sales;

Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 745,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.  This is 0.4 percent (±21.1 percent)* above the revised September rate of 742,000, but is 23.1 percent (±15.1 percent) below the October 2020 estimate of 969,000.

Sales Price; The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2021 was $407,700.  The average sales price was $477,800. 

For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply;

The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 389,000.  This represents a supply of 6.3 months at the current sales rate.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index; October, 2021

NEW YORK, November 18, 2021…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased by 0.9 percent in October to 118.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September and a 0.7 percent increase in August.

“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in October suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into 2022 and may even gain some momentum in the final months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Gains were widespread among the leading indicators, with only the average workweek and consumers’ outlook making negative contributions.

“However, rising prices and supply chain bottlenecks pose challenges to growth and are not expected to dissipate until well into 2022. Despite these headwinds, The Conference Board forecasts growth to remain strong in the fourth quarter at around 5.0 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still historically robust rate of 2.6 percent in Q1 2022.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.5 percent in October to 106.3 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in September and a 0.1 percent increase in August.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.4 percent in October to 107.4 (2016 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in September and a 0.3 percent decline in August.

National new home metrics; October, 2021

MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, OCTOBER 2021
November 17, 2021 ‐ The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for October 2021:
NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
OCTOBER 2021
Building Permits: 1,650,000
Housing Starts: 1,520,000
Housing Completions: 1,242,000
Next Release: December 16, 2021
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, HUD, November 17, 2021

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,650,000. This is 4.0 percent (±1.5 percent) above the revised September rate of 1,586,000 and is 3.4 percent (±1.6 percent) above the October 2020 rate of 1,595,000.

Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 1,069,000; this is 2.7 percent (±1.2 percent) above the revised September figure of 1,041,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 528,000 in October.

Housing Starts
Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,520,000. This is 0.7 percent (±12.2 percent)* below the revised September estimate of 1,530,000, but is 0.4 percent (±12.3 percent)* above the October 2020 rate of 1,514,000. Single‐family housing starts in October were at a rate of 1,039,000; this is 3.9 percent (±9.5 percent)* below the revised September figure of 1,081,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 470,000.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; October, 2021

New York, October 26, 2021…The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in October, following declines in the previous three months. The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), up from 109.8 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to 147.4 from 144.3 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 91.3 from 86.7. 

“Consumer confidence improved in October, reversing a three-month downward trend as concerns about the spread of the Delta variant eased,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “While short-term inflation concerns rose to a 13-year high, the impact on confidence was muted. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances all increased in October—a sign that consumer spending will continue to support economic growth through the final months of 2021. Likewise, nearly half of respondents (47.6%) said they intend to take a vacation within the next six months—the highest level since February 2020, a reflection of the ongoing resurgence in consumers’ willingness to travel and spend on in-person services.”

Present Situation

Consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions was mixed in October.

• 18.6% of consumers said business conditions are “good,” down from 19.1%.
• On the other hand, 24.9% of consumers said business conditions are “bad,” down from 25.3%.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was moderately more favorable.

• 55.6% of consumers said jobs are “plentiful,” down from 56.5%.
• Conversely, 10.6% of consumers said jobs are “hard to get,” down from 13.0%.

Expectations Six Month Hence

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term business conditions outlook was mixed in October.

• 24.3% of consumers expect business conditions will improve, up from 21.7%.
• On the other hand, 21.1% expect business conditions to worsen, up from 17.6%.

Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term labor market outlook.

• 25.4% of consumers expect more jobs to be available in the months ahead, up from 21.3%.
• 18.3% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 19.9%.

Consumers were more positive about their short-term financial prospects.

• 18.7% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, up from 16.9%.
• 11.3% expect their incomes will decrease, virtually unchanged from 11.4%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was October 20.

Please note: The Consumer Confidence Index® release date for December 2021 data has changed. We will now be releasing the Index on December 22 at 10 AM ET, not December 28 at 10 AM ET as previously indicated.

Source: October 2021 Consumer Confidence Survey^®

The Conference Board / Release #9044

The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index^® at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of every month. Subscription information and the technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.

Further information                                                                                                                                                                                      

Joseph DiBlasi (781) 308-7935 / joseph.diblasi@conference-board.org

Jonathan Liu (732) 991-1754 / jonathan.liu@tcb.org  

National new home sales metrics; September, 2021

Sales of new single-family houses in September 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800,000. This is 14.0 percent (+/- 17.9%)* above the revised August 2021 estimate of 702,000.

September 2021: +14.0* % change
August 2021 (r): -1.4* % change

Conference Board Leading Economic Index; September, 2021

NEW YORK, October 21, 2021…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased by 0.2 percent in September to 117.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in August and a 0.9 percent increase in July.

“The U.S. LEI rose again in September, though at a slower rate, suggesting the economy remains on a more moderate growth trajectory compared to the first half of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The Delta variant, rising inflation fears, and supply chain disruptions are all creating headwinds for the US economy. Despite the LEI’s slower growth in recent months, the strengths among the components remain widespread. Indeed, The Conference Board continues to forecast strong growth ahead: 5.7 percent year-over-year for 2021 and 3.8 percent for 2022.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. remained unchanged in September at 105.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August and a 0.6 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in September to 106.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August and a 0.4 percent increase in July