Conference Board CEO confidence index; 3Q/20

New York, NY, August 13, 2020…The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council rose slightly in the third quarter. The measure saw a one-point uptick, moving from 44 in the second quarter to 45 in the third quarter. (A reading below 50 points reflects more negative than positive responses.)
The latest Q3 results also reveal that, over the next 12 months, 38 percent of surveyed CEOs expect to reduce their workforce. Moreover, 37 percent say they will trim their capital spending budgets by 10 percent or more. And with uncertain economic conditions likely to persist, more than a third do not foresee increasing employees’ average wages over the next 12 months. Nearly 50 percent say they will increase wages by less than three percent.
“Without substantial containment of COVID-19, widespread uncertainty will continue being the dominant cloud hanging over America’s CEO community,” said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. “With more than one third of CEOs planning to make workforce and sizeable capital spending reductions over the next year, the effects on the economy could extend beyond the next 12 months.”
The latest CEO Confidence results reflect a new collaboration with The Business Council, in which The Conference Board surveyed a majority of the Council’s CEOs – all of whom lead top global companies. Also, the survey now gauges CEOs’ expectations about future actions their companies plan on taking in four key areas: capital spending, employment, recruiting, and wages.
“By collaborating with The Conference Board on their CEO Confidence survey, the world’s top CEOs who are members of The Business Council are providing insights on how they are feeling about the economy and the business environment and steps they plan on taking in light of their sentiment,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Trustee of The Conference Board. “The Conference Board’s non-partisan, decades-long track record in conducting renowned surveys makes them an ideal partner for The Business Council, whose mission it is to foster greater understanding of the major opportunities and challenges facing business today.”

Current Conditions
• On the whole, CEOs remain pessimistic about current economic conditions, though to a lesser extent than in the second quarter. Nearly 90 percent say conditions are worse compared to six months ago, down from 100 percent last quarter. Conversely, just 8 percent say general economic conditions are better.

• CEOs also continue to feel pessimistic about conditions in their own industries, albeit less so. Currently, about 76 percent say conditions are worse compared to six months ago, down from 82 percent last quarter. About 17 percent of CEOs say conditions are better in their own industries, up from 10 percent last quarter.

Future Conditions
• While sentiment about present-day conditions modestly improved, expectations about the short-term outlook have retreated. Now, 62 percent expect economic conditions will improve over the next six months, down from 71 percent last quarter. Moreover, nearly 17 percent expect economic conditions will worsen, up slightly from 16 percent in Q2.

• CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries were somewhat more positive than their expectations for the overall economy. Now, 60 percent of CEOs anticipate an improvement in conditions, down from 69 percent last quarter. Those expecting conditions will worsen in the short term, however, decreased to 17 percent from 22 percent in the previous quarter.

Capital Spending, Employment, Recruiting, and Wages
The survey also gauged CEOs’ expectations about four key actions their companies plan on taking over the next 12 months.

• Capital Spending: 37 percent say they will trim their budgets by 10 percent or more over the next 12 months. An additional 18 percent say they anticipate reducing their capital spending plans by less than 10 percent.

• Employment: Looking ahead over the next 12 months, 38 percent of CEOs expect to reduce their workforce.

• Hiring Qualified People: Nearly two-thirds anticipate little, if any, problems in attracting qualified personnel.

• Wages: Nearly 50 percent say they will increase wages by less than three percent.

Source: CEO Confidence Survey Third Quarter 2020 / The Conference Board
The CEO Confidence survey was fielded from July 15th through July 31st.

Media Contact
Joseph.DiBlasi@conference-board.org

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. http://www.conference-board.org

About The Business Council
The Business Council is a forum for the CEOs of the world’s largest multinational corporations across all industry sectors. Members gather several times each year to share best practices, network and engage in intellectually provocative, enlightening discussions with peers and thought-leaders in business, government, academia, science, technology and other disciplines. Through the medium of discussion, the Council seeks to foster greater understanding of the ma

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CNBC small business confidence index; July 2020

survey

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Conference Board Employment Trends Index; July 2020

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in July

Employment growth likely to slow in the coming months

NEW YORK, August 10, 2020…The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in July, following increases in May and June. The index now stands at 50.89, up from 49.46 (an upward revision) in June. However, the index is still down 53.8 percent from a year ago.

“Despite increasing again, the ETI’s July results mark a small improvement compared to the gains made in May and June. The slowing momentum likely resulted from the diminishing impact of the reopening of the economy,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “This stark deceleration represents a preview of what’s to come: Over the next several months, job growth will significantly put on the brakes, likely causing the national unemployment rate to remain in double-digit territory. Less generous government stimulus will dampen consumer spending. In addition, more waves of downsizing and bankruptcies will spur widespread layoffs—and thus further constrain the expansion of the US workforce.”

July’s increase was fueled by positive contributions from six of the eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, the components were: the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry; Industrial Production; the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get;” Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance; the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers; and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
 Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
 Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
 Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
 Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
 Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
 Job Openings (BLS)**
 Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
 Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**
*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. http://www.conference-board.org

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United States personal income and outlays; June 2020

News Release
News Release
Related Materials
Contacts
Additional Information
EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, July 31, 2020
BEA 20—38
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2020 and Annual Update
Personal income decreased $222.8 billion (1.1 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $255.3 billion (1.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $737.7 billion (5.6 percent).

Real DPI decreased 1.8 percent in June and Real PCE increased 5.2 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on June 2020 Personal Income and Outlays
The June estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments continued but were at a lower level than in May, and government “stay-at-home” orders were partially lifted in some areas of the country. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.
The decrease in personal income in June was more than accounted for by a decrease in government social benefits to persons as payments made to individuals from federal economic recovery programs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic continued, but at a lower level than in May (table 3). For more information, see “How are the economic impact payments for individuals authorized by the CARES Act of 2020 recorded in the NIPAs?.

Partially offsetting the decrease in other government social benefits were increases in compensation of employees and proprietors’ income as portions of the economy continued to reopen in June. Unemployment insurance benefits, based primarily on unemployment claims data from the Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration, also increased in June. For more information, see “How will the expansion of unemployment benefits in response to the COVID-19 pandemic be recorded in the NIPAs?”.

2020
Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars 0.8 -1.8 12.1 -4.4 -1.1
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 0.7 -1.8 14.7 -5.1 -1.4
Chained (2012) dollars 0.6 -1.5 15.3 -5.2 -1.8
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars 0.0 -6.7 -12.9 8.5 5.6
Chained (2012) dollars -0.1 -6.5 -12.4 8.4 5.2
Price indexes:
PCE 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 0.4
PCE, excluding food and energy 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.2
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
PCE 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.8
PCE, excluding food and energy 1.9 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.9
The $623.0 billion increase in real PCE in June reflected an increase of $273.7 billion in spending for goods and a $362.1 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, the leading contributor to the increase was spending for clothing & footwear, based on Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) data. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were spending for health care as well as food services and accommodations. Within health care, both hospital and outpatient services increased, based on volume data for hospital services and outpatient visits as well as credit card data. Spending for food services and accommodations was based on Census MRTS and Smith Travel Research data. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $734.4 billion in June (table 3). Personal saving was $3.37 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 19.0 percent (table 1).

Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts
The estimates released today also reflect the results of the Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). The timespan of the update is the first quarter of 2015 through the fourth quarter of 2019 for estimates of real GDP and its major components, and the first quarter of 1999 through the fourth quarter of 2019 for estimates of income and saving. The reference year remains 2012. More information on the 2020 Annual Update is included in the May Survey of Current Business article, “GDP and the Economy.”

With today’s release, most NIPA tables are available through BEA’s Interactive Data application on the BEA Web site (www.bea.gov). See “Information on Updates to the National Income and Product Accounts” for the complete table release schedule and a summary of results, which includes a discussion of methodology changes. A table showing the major current-dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national income, and personal income is also provided. The August 2020 Survey of Current Business will contain an article describing the update in more detail.

Previously published estimates, which are superseded by today’s release, are found in BEA’s archives.

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Revisions to annual estimates of personal income and outlays are shown in table 12. Revised and previously published changes in monthly personal income, DPI, PCE, personal saving as a percentage of DPI, real DPI, and real PCE are shown in table 13. Revised and previously published changes in annual and quarterly estimates are shown in table 14.

Personal income was revised up $6.5 billion, or less than 0.1 percent in 2015; revised up $39.5 billion, or 0.2 percent in 2016; revised up $69.8 billion, or 0.4 percent in 2017; revised up $32.7 billion, or 0.2 percent in 2018; and revised down $56.8 billion, or 0.3 percent in 2019.

For 2015, the upward revision to personal income primarily reflected upward revisions of $2.8 billion to wages and salaries and $2.1 billion to personal current transfer receipts that were partly offset by a downward revision of $1.5 billion to supplements to wages and salaries.
For 2016, upward revisions of $16.9 billion to personal interest income, $13.5 billion to personal dividend income, and $5.6 billion to wages and salaries were partly offset by a downward revision of $2.1 billion to supplements to wages and salaries.
For 2017, upward revisions of $30.8 billion to personal dividend income, $26.1 billion to personal interest income, and $9.4 billion to wages and salaries were partly offset by a downward revision of $12.7 billion to nonfarm proprietors’ income.
For 2018, upward revisions of $77.6 billion to personal dividend income, $15.9 billion to supplements to wages and salaries, and $15.8 billion to farm proprietors’ income were partly offset by downward revisions of $61.1 billion to personal interest income and $18.6 billion to nonfarm proprietors’ income.
For 2019, downward revisions of $43.1 billion to personal interest income, $39.3 billion to government social benefits to persons, and $18.2 billion to nonfarm proprietors’ income were partly offset by upward revisions of $18.1 billion to personal dividend income, $17.7 billion to farm proprietors’ income, and $9.2 billion to rental income of persons.
DPI was revised up $4.3 billion, or less than 0.1 percent in 2015; revised up $37.7 billion, or 0.3 percent in 2016; revised up $68.9 billion, or 0.5 percent in 2017; revised up $25.0 billion, or 0.2 percent in 2018; and revised down $76.5 billion, or 0.5 percent in 2019.

Personal outlays was revised up $14.4 billion, or 0.1 percent in 2015; revised up $21.5 billion, or 0.2 percent in 2016; revised up $28.8 billion, or 0.2 percent in 2017; revised down $1.9 billion, or less than 0.1 percent in 2018; and revised down $4.9 billion, or less than 0.1 percent in 2019.

The personal saving rate was revised down 0.1 percentage point to 7.5 percent in 2015, revised up 0.1 percentage point to 6.9 percent in 2016, revised up 0.2 percentage point to 7.2 percent in 2017, revised up 0.1 percentage point to 7.8 percent in 2018, and revised down 0.4 percentage point to 7.5 percent in 2019.

QCEW Data Included in the First Quarter of 2020
BEA’s data on wages and salaries for the first quarter of 2020 were based on expedited information from state employment offices across the country. BEA acknowledges the special efforts by the Bureau of Labor Statistics with the assistance of these state employment offices in providing preliminary data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
Monthly estimates. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for currentdollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

Change from preceding month
April May
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars 2,018.8 2,270.4 10.8 12.1 -874.2 -934.8 -4.2 -4.4
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 2,167.9 2,423.2 13.1 14.7 -911.1 -969.6 -4.9 -5.1
Chained (2012) dollars 2,039.9 2,280.3 13.6 15.3 -843.8 -899.5 -5.0 -5.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars -1,757.6 -1,789.7 -12.6 -12.9 994.5 1,024.7 8.2 8.5
Chained (2012) dollars -1,539.8 -1,558.2 -12.2 -12.4 892.6 916.7 8.1 8.4
Next release: August 28, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
Personal Income and Outlays: July 2020

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United States GDP; 2Q/20

The Conference Board’s Statement on Q2 GDP

US GDP shows largest economic contraction in 75 years, with only limited recovery in sights
Commentary by Erik Lundh, Senior Economist, The Conference Board

US Real Gross Domestic Product contracted by 32.9% (annualized) during the second quarter of 2020, after already shrinking 5% in Q1. The US economy has not seen an economic contraction of this magnitude since at least 1945, when the country demobilized following World War II. Today’s initial estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) means that the economy shrank nearly 10% between April and June, a period that encapsulated the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown, and the beginning of the reopening.

According to the BEA, personal consumption expenditures growth fell to −34.6% in Q2, with the brunt of the pain hitting services (−43.5%). (Compared to −11.3% in goods). Meanwhile, investment contracted sharply, with non-residential investment growth dropping to −27.0% and residential investment growth to −38.7%. The hits to exports and imports largely cancelled each other out, resulting in no drag from net exports. Overall government spending rose 2.7%, with federal nondefense spending up 39.7%, helping to mitigate the pandemic’s overall damage to the economy.

Looking ahead, given the rapid spread of the virus over the summer and the impact it has had on many states, it is not clear that economic activity will significantly improve from June/July levels. We anticipate some recovery in the second half of 2020, but do not expect the economy to reach pre–COVID-19 output levels until 2021 at the earliest. The Conference Board presently has three distinct scenarios for US economic growth in 2020, ranging from a “swoosh”-shaped fall recovery scenario (yielding annual GDP growth of −6.4%) to a more daunting “W”-shaped scenario (yielding annual GDP growth of −7.2%).

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Conference Board CEO global survey of market conditions

Survey: CEOs See Less Globalization, More Flexible Workforces, Broadened Corporate Missions in COVID-19’s Aftermath

NEW YORK, NY, July 30, 2020…According to a new global survey, CEOs and C-Suite executives think COVID-19’s fallout will result in leaner and more agile companies. Businesses will likely emerge from this pandemic using more contract workers and fewer permanent staff, and business travel will be reduced in favor of more videoconferencing.
The Conference Board surveyed more than 1,300 CEOs and C-Suite executives about COVID-19’s long-term impacts. They see a return to pre-pandemic revenue levels at least a year or more away. More than 40 percent predict a U-shaped recovery, with more sustainable growth resuming by Q4 2020. About a third expect an L-shaped recovery, with sustained growth resuming only in late 2021.
Executives also say this crisis will compel them to accelerate their digital transformation plans and rethink their business models. Also, they do not see an increased urgency around the long-term restructuring of supply chains, reflecting a degree of confidence in their ability to manage emerging risks. Nor do most of them think cities will lose their staying power.
“In the short term, preparing for growth and recovery will require finding the right balance between conserving cash and investing in the innovations needed to succeed in a new commercial landscape – the next normal, if you will,” said Chuck Mitchell, a report author and Director of Knowledge, Content, and Quality at The Conference Board. “Post-COVID-19, CEOs expect their organizations to emerge leaner and more agile, redefining how work gets done.”
Additional takeaways from the report and survey results include:

What Will the Economic Recovery Look Like?

A plurality of CEOs globally anticipate a U-shaped recovery (extended contraction in Q3, growth resumes by Q4).
• Europe is most optimistic: 55 percent of CEOs in Europe see a U-shaped recovery as the likely scenario.
• United States and China: In both countries, slightly more than 40 percent anticipate a U-shaped recovery.

Nearly a quarter of US and Japanese CEOs expect a W-shaped recovery (second contraction in latter half of 2020).
• Global: Just 16 percent of CEOs see this as likely.

Globally, just 11 percent of CEOs expect a V-Shaped recovery (a fast recovery in Q3). But, China’s CEOs have more hope.
• China: Notably, 21 percent of CEOs there predict a V-Shaped recovery.

“While business leaders are navigating through the many disruptions and uncertainties brought on by the global pandemic, they are focusing on shaping long-term growth strategies in a post-pandemic world,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, a report author and Global Research Chair of The Conference Board. “Even though they expect their business revenues to recover slowly and not fully before the end of 2021, their focus on accelerating digital transformation and innovating new business models to serve their customers could lay the ground work for a sustainable growth path in the longer term.”

Company Revenues: When Will They Return to Pre-COVID-19 Levels?

47 percent of CEOs globally predict pre-COVID-19 revenue levels will return sometime in 2021.
• Europe: 62 percent of CEOs there see this as likely. United States: 51 percent of CEOs there see this as likely.
• China: 32 percent of CEOs there see this as likely, but 41 percent expect an earlier recovery in 2020.

Human Capital, Management, and Talent: COVID-19’s Long-Term Impacts

CEOs plan to emerge from the pandemic with more contract and gig workers and fewer permanent, in-house workers.
• CEOs: They cite it as the 4th most important long-term impact in this category.
• C-Suite: Notably, they put it far lower on the list, citing it as the 10th.

Post-COVID-19, expect more flexible work hours and more permanent telecommuting.
• Adopt new work policies to include more flexible hours: CEOs cite it as 1st; C-Suite cites it as 2nd.
• Permanently increase the number of employees who can work remotely: CEOs cite it as 2nd; C-Suite cites it as 1st.

Teams will get a makeover.
• Create agile project teams to redefine how work gets done: Both CEOs and C-Suite executives cite it as 3rd.

Company Operations: COVID-19’s Long-Term Impacts

Companies will emerge from COVID-19 as leaner, more agile organizations.
• Accelerate cost management & budget reductions: CEOs cite it as the 4th most important long-term impact; C-Suite cites it as 3rd.
• Reduced business travel since videoconferencing has been effective: CEOs cite it as 3rd; C-Suite cites it as 2nd.

COVID-19’s biggest legacy on operations: accelerated digital transformation.
• Both CEOs and the C-Suite cite as 1st, speed up the pace of transformation into a digitally driven organization.

Despite short-term disruptions, the pandemic does not radically change the restructuring of supply chains in the long term.
• Just 10 percent of CEOs and 7 percent of the C-Suite see supply chain restructuring as a significant long-term impact.

A Mile Apart: 3 Notable Disagreements Between CEOs and the C-Suite

Emerge with a smaller permanent workforce, and make greater use of a temporary and flexible workforce:
• CEOs cite it as the 4th most important long-term Human Capital change; C-Suite cites it as 10th.
Reconfigure our physical office space to allow for social distancing:
• CEOs cite it as the 10th most important long-term Human Capital change; C-Suite cites it as 5th.
The pace of economic recovery:
• 56 percent of CFOs expect a U-shaped recovery, but just 42 percent of CEOs agree.

Media can contact The Conference Board for a copy of the report and survey results.

For more information
Joseph DiBlasi: joseph.diblasi@conference-board.org

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. http://www.conference-board.org

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Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July; 2020

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Decreased in July

New York, July 28, 2020…The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in July, after increasing in June. The Index now stands at 92.6 (1985=100), down from 98.3 in June. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 86.7 to 94.2. However, the Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – decreased from 106.1 in June to 91.5 this month.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 17.

“Consumer Confidence declined in July following a large gain in June,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index improved, but the Expectations Index retreated. Large declines were experienced in Michigan, Florida, Texas and California, no doubt a result of the resurgence of COVID-19. Looking ahead, consumers have grown less optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market and remain subdued about their financial prospects. Such uncertainty about the short-term future does not bode well for the recovery, nor for consumer spending.”

Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions improved in July. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good” was relatively unchanged at 17.3 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased from 42.5 percent to 39.1 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was more favorable. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 20.5 percent to 21.3 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 23.3 percent to 20.0 percent.

Consumers, however, were less optimistic about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months declined from 42.4 percent to 31.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased from 15.2 percent to 19.3 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less favorable. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined from 38.4 percent to 30.6 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead increased from 14.4 percent to 20.3 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an increase was relatively unchanged at 15.1 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease rose from 14.1 percent to 15.0 percent.

Source: July 2020 Consumer Confidence Survey®
The Conference Board / Release #7006

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National new home metrics; June 2020

newressales

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Conference Board leading economic indicators for June; 2020

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in June
Resurgence of new COVID-19 Cases Threatens Recent Gains

NEW YORK, July 23, 2020…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 2.0 percent in June to 102.0 (2016=100), following a 3.2 percent increase in May and a 6.3 percent decrease in April.

“The June increase in the LEI reflects improvements brought about by the incremental reopening of the economy, with labor market conditions and stock prices in particular contributing positively,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “However, broader financial conditions and the consumers’ outlook on business conditions still point to a weak economic outlook. Together with a resurgence of new COVID-19 cases across much of the nation, the LEI suggests that the US economy will remain in recession territory in the near term.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 2.5 percent in June to 96.7 (2016=100), following a 1.6 percent increase in May and an 11.8 percent decrease in April.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. decreased 2.5 percent in June to 110.8 (2016=100), following a 1.2 percent decrease in May and a 3.1 percent increase in April.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

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National new home starts and permits; June 2020

New homes; 6/20

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