Wells Fargo-NAHB builder confidence index for November, 2017

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Why is consumer confidence so high?

Consumer Confidence

As Measured by the Conference Board, October consumer confidence came in at 125.9, the highest reading since 12/00. This elevated level is a result of rising equity and home prices and an unemployment rate of just 4.2%, its best level since 2/01. A similar measure put out by the University of Michigan is at its best level since early 2004, and Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort index is near its post-recession high.

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NAR pending sale index for September, 2017

Poor Pendings

Pending home sales were flat in September and that was the highlight of the report. The index is at its lowest level since 1/15, and has declined Y-o-Y in five of the last six months. Moreover, in the Northeast the index is down 2.4% Y-o-Y, and is down 2.5% Y-o-Y in the Midwest. In the South, pending sales are off 5% Y-o-Y, and out West they are 2.9% weaker Y-o-Y.

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Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
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Metro Study national economic report; 3Q/17

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National new home sales for September, 2017

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

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TMLS market update for September 2017

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National consumer confidence index for October, 2017

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