New York, December 22, 2022…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. decreased by 1.0 percent in November 2022 to 113.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.9 percent in October. The LEI is now down 3.7 percent over the six-month period between May and November 2022—a much steeper rate of decline than its 0.8 percent contraction over the previous six-month period, between November 2021 and May 2022.
“The US LEI fell sharply in November, continuing the slide it’s been on for most of 2022 after peaking in February,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “Only stock prices contributed positively to the US LEI in November. Labor market, manufacturing, and housing indicators all weakened—reflecting serious headwinds to economic growth. Interest rate spread and manufacturing new orders components were essentially unchanged in November, confirming a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in November 2022 to 109.4 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.2 percent in October. The CEI rose by 1.2 percent over the six-month period from May to November 2022, faster than its growth of 0.7 percent over the previous six-month period. CEI components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Only the industrial production index contributed negatively to the CEI in November.
Ozyildirim said: “Despite the current resilience of the labor market—as revealed by the US CEI in November—and consumer confidence improving in December, the US LEI suggests the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is curtailing aspects of economic activity, especially housing. As a result, we project a US recession is likely to start around the beginning of 2023 and last through mid-year.”