Conference Board Employment Trends Index, November 2022

NEW YORK, December 5, 2022…The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in November to 117.65, from a downwardly revised 118.74 in October 2022. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI decreased in November 2022 for the second consecutive month. While the Index remains at a high level, its downward trend signals slower job growth ahead,” said Frank Steemers, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “The labor market is currently still robust. However, the fourth consecutive decline in the number of temporary help services jobs—a component of the ETI and an important leading indicator for hiring—is a warning sign that job growth may slow going into 2023.”

Steemers added: “The demand for workers is still resilient and wage growth continues to be elevated. With the number of employees quitting still high—and the labor supply still constrained—employers may continue to offer strong pay increases to their existing workers and new hires over the coming months. However, with the economy expected to slow further in 2023 amid the Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate hikes, we expect the US labor market to cool and possibly even record some monthly job losses. That said, labor shortages are unlikely to disappear altogether, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from the current 3.7 percent to a still-low 4.5 percent in 2023. Employers may still need to manage recruitment and retention difficulties, as well as rising labor costs, into the new year and beyond.”

November’s decrease in the Employment Trends Index was driven by negative contributions from six of eight components including: Initial Claims for Unemployment, Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Industrial Production, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.


About TARR Report

S.M.A. Publications was formed in 1997 with a mission of providing real estate information for practitioners within the Research Triangle Park area of North Carolina. The company produces the T.A.R.R. Reports which are published monthly, quarterly and annually, covering all aspects of the residential real estate market. The publisher, Stacey P. Anfindsen, has over 23 years of residential experience in the Triangle market. He is an active real estate appraiser, educator and consultant.
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