New York, October 20, 2022…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. decreased by 0.4 percent in September 2022 to 115.9 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in August. The LEI is down 2.8 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2022, a reversal from its 1.4 percent growth over the previous six months.
“The US LEI fell again in September and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before yearend,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread. Amid high inflation, slowing labor markets, rising interest rates, and tighter credit conditions, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.5 percent year-over-year in 2022, before slowing further in the first half of next year.”