Conference Board Leading Economic Index; 5/22

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. decreased by 0.4 percent in May 2022 to 118.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in April 2022. The LEI is now down 0.4 percent over the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022.

“The US LEI fell again in May, fueled by tumbling stock prices, a slowdown in housing construction, and gloomier consumer expectations,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The index is still near a historic high, but the US LEI suggests weaker economic activity is likely in the near term—and tighter monetary policy is poised to dampen economic growth even further.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in May 2022 to 108.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in April 2022. The CEI is up 1.3 percent over the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.8 percent in May 2022 to 112.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in April 2022. The LAG is up 3.7 percent over the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
   2022   6-month
 Mar Apr May Nov to May
         
         
Leading Index119.3r118.8r118.3p  
  Percent Change-0.1r-0.4r-0.4p-0.4 
  Diffusion50 20 55 40 
         
Coincident Index108.1r108.6r108.8p  
  Percent Change0.0r0.5r0.2p1.3 
  Diffusion50 100 75 75 
         
Lagging Index111.6r112.0r112.9p  
  Percent Change1.0r0.40.8p3.7 
  Diffusion86 57.1 71.4 85.7 
         
p  Preliminary     r  Revised        
Indexes equal 100 in 2016        
Source:  The Conference Board       

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, July 21, 2022, at 10 A.M. ET.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org Learn more about our mission and becoming a member

About TARR Report

S.M.A. Publications was formed in 1997 with a mission of providing real estate information for practitioners within the Research Triangle Park area of North Carolina. The company produces the T.A.R.R. Reports which are published monthly, quarterly and annually, covering all aspects of the residential real estate market. The publisher, Stacey P. Anfindsen, has over 23 years of residential experience in the Triangle market. He is an active real estate appraiser, educator and consultant.
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