Conference Board Employment Trends Index; November, 2021

NEW YORK, December 6, 2021…The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased slightly in November. The index now stands at 114.49, up from 113.03 in October (an upward revision).

“The Employment Trends Index continues to advance steadily, suggesting a decent outlook for job growth over the next several months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “In that context, November’s disappointing payrolls growth may be an outlier rather than a new trend. Of course, this is contingent on the emerging Omicron variant—a new wildcard that threatens to extend COVID-19’s impacts on job growth beyond Delta.”

“On its current trajectory, much of the job growth ahead should come from sectors still in the process of reopening, including restaurants, hotels, entertainment, personal services, and passenger transportation. These industries are relatively labor intensive, so their further recoveries will be key for sustaining strong job growth. At the same time, labor supply will struggle to meet the demand for workers, as the US working-age population stagnates and Baby Boomers drop out of the workforce. We currently project the unemployment rate—already down to 4.2 percent—to approach 3.0 percent by the end of 2022, which would mark a 70-year low. Indeed, even if pandemic disruptions to labor supply fully subside in the year ahead, a tight labor market is likely here for the foreseeable future. Employers should expect recruiting difficulties and quit rates to remain high, fueling the upward pressure on wages.”

November’s increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from six of eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance; Industrial Production; Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers; Job Openings; Number of Temporary Employees; and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. The two components that made negative contributions in November were Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now and Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get”.

The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About TARR Report

S.M.A. Publications was formed in 1997 with a mission of providing real estate information for practitioners within the Research Triangle Park area of North Carolina. The company produces the T.A.R.R. Reports which are published monthly, quarterly and annually, covering all aspects of the residential real estate market. The publisher, Stacey P. Anfindsen, has over 23 years of residential experience in the Triangle market. He is an active real estate appraiser, educator and consultant.
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