The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in December
This month’s release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
NEW YORK, January 28, 2021…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.3 percent in December to 109.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in November and a 0.9 percent increase in October.
“The US LEI’s slowing pace of increase in December suggests that US economic growth continues to moderate in the first quarter of 2021. Improvements in the US LEI were very broad-based among the leading indicators, except for rising initial claims for unemployment insurance and a mixed consumer outlook on business and economic conditions,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the resurgence of COVID-19 and weak labor markets remain barriers to growth, The Conference Board expects the economy to expand by at least 2.0 percent (annual rate) in Q1 and then gain momentum throughout the year.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in December to 103.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November and a 0.6 percent increase in October.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in December to 107.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November and a 0.2 percent increase in October.