EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, July 31, 2020
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2020 and Annual Update
Personal income decreased $222.8 billion (1.1 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $255.3 billion (1.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $737.7 billion (5.6 percent).
Real DPI decreased 1.8 percent in June and Real PCE increased 5.2 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on June 2020 Personal Income and Outlays
The June estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments continued but were at a lower level than in May, and government “stay-at-home” orders were partially lifted in some areas of the country. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.
The decrease in personal income in June was more than accounted for by a decrease in government social benefits to persons as payments made to individuals from federal economic recovery programs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic continued, but at a lower level than in May (table 3). For more information, see “How are the economic impact payments for individuals authorized by the CARES Act of 2020 recorded in the NIPAs?.
Partially offsetting the decrease in other government social benefits were increases in compensation of employees and proprietors’ income as portions of the economy continued to reopen in June. Unemployment insurance benefits, based primarily on unemployment claims data from the Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration, also increased in June. For more information, see “How will the expansion of unemployment benefits in response to the COVID-19 pandemic be recorded in the NIPAs?”.
Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June
Percent change from preceding month
Current dollars 0.8 -1.8 12.1 -4.4 -1.1
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 0.7 -1.8 14.7 -5.1 -1.4
Chained (2012) dollars 0.6 -1.5 15.3 -5.2 -1.8
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars 0.0 -6.7 -12.9 8.5 5.6
Chained (2012) dollars -0.1 -6.5 -12.4 8.4 5.2
PCE 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 0.4
PCE, excluding food and energy 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.2
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
PCE 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.8
PCE, excluding food and energy 1.9 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.9
The $623.0 billion increase in real PCE in June reflected an increase of $273.7 billion in spending for goods and a $362.1 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, the leading contributor to the increase was spending for clothing & footwear, based on Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) data. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were spending for health care as well as food services and accommodations. Within health care, both hospital and outpatient services increased, based on volume data for hospital services and outpatient visits as well as credit card data. Spending for food services and accommodations was based on Census MRTS and Smith Travel Research data. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.6U.
Personal outlays increased $734.4 billion in June (table 3). Personal saving was $3.37 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 19.0 percent (table 1).
Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts
The estimates released today also reflect the results of the Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). The timespan of the update is the first quarter of 2015 through the fourth quarter of 2019 for estimates of real GDP and its major components, and the first quarter of 1999 through the fourth quarter of 2019 for estimates of income and saving. The reference year remains 2012. More information on the 2020 Annual Update is included in the May Survey of Current Business article, “GDP and the Economy.”
With today’s release, most NIPA tables are available through BEA’s Interactive Data application on the BEA Web site (www.bea.gov). See “Information on Updates to the National Income and Product Accounts” for the complete table release schedule and a summary of results, which includes a discussion of methodology changes. A table showing the major current-dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national income, and personal income is also provided. The August 2020 Survey of Current Business will contain an article describing the update in more detail.
Previously published estimates, which are superseded by today’s release, are found in BEA’s archives.
Updates to Personal Income and Outlays
Revisions to annual estimates of personal income and outlays are shown in table 12. Revised and previously published changes in monthly personal income, DPI, PCE, personal saving as a percentage of DPI, real DPI, and real PCE are shown in table 13. Revised and previously published changes in annual and quarterly estimates are shown in table 14.
Personal income was revised up $6.5 billion, or less than 0.1 percent in 2015; revised up $39.5 billion, or 0.2 percent in 2016; revised up $69.8 billion, or 0.4 percent in 2017; revised up $32.7 billion, or 0.2 percent in 2018; and revised down $56.8 billion, or 0.3 percent in 2019.
For 2015, the upward revision to personal income primarily reflected upward revisions of $2.8 billion to wages and salaries and $2.1 billion to personal current transfer receipts that were partly offset by a downward revision of $1.5 billion to supplements to wages and salaries.
For 2016, upward revisions of $16.9 billion to personal interest income, $13.5 billion to personal dividend income, and $5.6 billion to wages and salaries were partly offset by a downward revision of $2.1 billion to supplements to wages and salaries.
For 2017, upward revisions of $30.8 billion to personal dividend income, $26.1 billion to personal interest income, and $9.4 billion to wages and salaries were partly offset by a downward revision of $12.7 billion to nonfarm proprietors’ income.
For 2018, upward revisions of $77.6 billion to personal dividend income, $15.9 billion to supplements to wages and salaries, and $15.8 billion to farm proprietors’ income were partly offset by downward revisions of $61.1 billion to personal interest income and $18.6 billion to nonfarm proprietors’ income.
For 2019, downward revisions of $43.1 billion to personal interest income, $39.3 billion to government social benefits to persons, and $18.2 billion to nonfarm proprietors’ income were partly offset by upward revisions of $18.1 billion to personal dividend income, $17.7 billion to farm proprietors’ income, and $9.2 billion to rental income of persons.
DPI was revised up $4.3 billion, or less than 0.1 percent in 2015; revised up $37.7 billion, or 0.3 percent in 2016; revised up $68.9 billion, or 0.5 percent in 2017; revised up $25.0 billion, or 0.2 percent in 2018; and revised down $76.5 billion, or 0.5 percent in 2019.
Personal outlays was revised up $14.4 billion, or 0.1 percent in 2015; revised up $21.5 billion, or 0.2 percent in 2016; revised up $28.8 billion, or 0.2 percent in 2017; revised down $1.9 billion, or less than 0.1 percent in 2018; and revised down $4.9 billion, or less than 0.1 percent in 2019.
The personal saving rate was revised down 0.1 percentage point to 7.5 percent in 2015, revised up 0.1 percentage point to 6.9 percent in 2016, revised up 0.2 percentage point to 7.2 percent in 2017, revised up 0.1 percentage point to 7.8 percent in 2018, and revised down 0.4 percentage point to 7.5 percent in 2019.
QCEW Data Included in the First Quarter of 2020
BEA’s data on wages and salaries for the first quarter of 2020 were based on expedited information from state employment offices across the country. BEA acknowledges the special efforts by the Bureau of Labor Statistics with the assistance of these state employment offices in providing preliminary data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
Monthly estimates. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for currentdollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.
Change from preceding month
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Current dollars 2,018.8 2,270.4 10.8 12.1 -874.2 -934.8 -4.2 -4.4
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 2,167.9 2,423.2 13.1 14.7 -911.1 -969.6 -4.9 -5.1
Chained (2012) dollars 2,039.9 2,280.3 13.6 15.3 -843.8 -899.5 -5.0 -5.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars -1,757.6 -1,789.7 -12.6 -12.9 994.5 1,024.7 8.2 8.5
Chained (2012) dollars -1,539.8 -1,558.2 -12.2 -12.4 892.6 916.7 8.1 8.4
Next release: August 28, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
Personal Income and Outlays: July 2020