The economy; good or bad?

Dueling Data

Financial indicators such as yield spreads between investment grade bonds and junk bonds, equity values, inflation rates, Treasury yields and commodity prices suggest a weak economy and a moderately high recession probability. Yet car and home sales, employment growth, job quits, loan delinquencies, income growth, and now consumer spending suggest continued unspectacular growth and a low likelihood of recession. I put the chances of recession at a relatively low 25%.

Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D
GraphsandLaughs, LLC
elliot@graphsandlaughs.net
Cell: 202.306.2731
http://www.econ70.com

About TARR Report

S.M.A. Publications was formed in 1997 with a mission of providing real estate information for practitioners within the Research Triangle Park area of North Carolina. The company produces the T.A.R.R. Reports which are published monthly, quarterly and annually, covering all aspects of the residential real estate market. The publisher, Stacey P. Anfindsen, has over 23 years of residential experience in the Triangle market. He is an active real estate appraiser, educator and consultant.
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